News |
by
Prasanto K Roy
One kilogram. That's what it weighed, the bulky
prototype used for a wireless phone call by a Motorola engineer in 1973.
For the real milestone 10 years later, a 790-gram Motorola DynaTAC made
the first call from a commercial mobile phone, in a Mercedes in 1983.
That makes the mobile 30 years old, and not the 40 that's being
reported.
Since then, it's been a long road to today's smart, slim, all-colour
100-gram personal digital companion. The mobile helped India leapfrog
past wireline telephony, to a personal phone for every other citizen.
It's altered social behaviour. It's caused revolutions.
Mobile subscriptions grew from zero in 1983 to 12 million in 1990,
and then to 6 billion in 2011. The world bought 1.75 billion mobiles in
2012. Of the 1.8 billion expected to sell in 2013, about half could be
smartphones.
So how's the mobile changed in 30 years? Yes, it's now small and
light, and has gone from one-line mono display to colour to
high-definition. The bigger deal is that it's moved from voice to mostly
data: email, browsing, apps. And from phone to personal companion. Yet
the mobile is far from perfect. There are two big issues.
The first is the battery: The only reason why James Bond's
wrist-watch mobiles are impractical. Ten years ago, my Nokia 6310i would
last seven days on a charge. My 2013 BlackBerry Z10 struggles to last a
day.
The battery hasn't kept up with the increase in data and apps use. In
the voice-only era, the phone's radio (the part that sends and receives
signals) would be in use for two hours in 24. In today's data age,
those radios work continuously, draining batteries.
The second is congestion. Mobiles use radio spectrum, a scarce
resource. The more phones fight for that spectrum, the worse our
experience is: Failed and dropped calls, breaking voices.
But with over 6 billion subscriptions already there for its 7 billion
people, will our planet keep up the explosive mobile-telephony growth
of the past 30 years? Oh, yes!
Let's look at those subscriptions. A half-billion are in multi-SIM
phones or multiple phones owned by the same person. Or in other devices
such as iPads, or laptop dongles.
Another half-billion mobile users are machines. Electric meters,
escalators, automobiles, security cameras, with built-in cellular
modules. They auto-report readings, usage status, failures. Some, like
digital doorlocks, allow remote control.